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Sempra, as Energy Infrastructure Investments Drive Future Growth

Investment Overview
March 30, 2025

Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) is one of the world's largest energy holding companies, focusing on infrastructure development for electric and gas utilities. The company employs approximately 20,000 people and serves nearly 40 million consumers globally through its subsidiaries in Southern California, San Diego, and Texas. Sempra's strategic priorities include LNG infrastructure development and the implementation of low-carbon technologies, particularly hydrogen solutions.

Sempra, as Energy Infrastructure Investments Drive Future Growth

Key Projects

LNG Infrastructure

Sempra is a major player in the global LNG market with several significant projects and sees opportunity to build an LNG export portfolio in the US and Mexico of up to 90 million tonnes per annum:

  • Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG Phase 1: This first LNG export project on Mexico's Pacific coast is 90% complete in engineering, procurement, and construction. The single-train facility will export 3.25 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG, with commercial operations expected to begin in spring 2026. Sempra has signed 20 year sales agreements with Mitsui & Co. and TotalEnergies for 2.5 mtpa.
  • Gasoducto Rosarito (GRO) Expansion Pipeline: This 302 km gas pipeline in Baja California supporting natural gas supply to ECA LNG Phase 1 is in commercial operations (COD). It has capacity to transport 0.5 Bcf/d and connects to US pipeline systems.
  • Cameron LNG Phase 1: Developed with partners Mitsubishi Corporation and TotalEnergies, this project had strong production performance with 98% reliability in 2024, exported 193 LNG cargoes that year and 895 cargoes in total since production started in May 2019.
  • Port Arthur LNG: Construction of Phase 1 on the US Gulf Coast is on schedule and on budget. With a nameplate capacity of approximately 13 million mtpa, this $13 billion project has its long-term contractable capacity of 10.5 mtpa fully subscribed by major energy companies. Sempra has signed a letter of intent with Saudi Aramco for 5 million tonnes of LNG per year for 20 years, with Aramco also planning to invest up to 25% in Phase 2. Sempra is targeting FID for Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 in 2025, which would increase the facility's total liquefaction capacity to about 26 mtpa.

Renewable Energy

Sempra is expanding its renewable energy portfolio with the Cimarron Wind Farm in Baja California, Mexico. This 320 MW project is a $550 million investment and is expected to be in service by the end of 20251. The facility will have 64 wind turbines and generate approximately 1 terawatt-hour of clean energy annually, enough to power over 84,000 homes in Santa Clara, California, and reduce CO₂ emissions by 200,000 tonnes annually.

Clean Energy Projects

In November 2024, aSoCalGas subsidiary launched a hydrogen storage pilot project with GKN Hydrogen and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, focused on solid-state hydrogen storage. This project, running until December 2026, received $1.7 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy and $400,000 from SoCalGas. SoCalGas is also working with EVOLOH Inc. on cost-effective electrolyzer technology that can reduce capital expenditures by 25% and make green hydrogen more accessible.

Financial Performance

Sempra fell short of its 2024 financial expectations. GAAP earnings were $2.82 billion or $4.42 per diluted share, compared to $3.03 billion or $4.79 per diluted share in 2023. Adjusted earnings were $2.97 billion or $4.65 per diluted share, up slightly from $2.92 billion or $4.61 per diluted share in 2023.

Consolidated revenue was $13.19 billion, 21% below 2023 and 13.5% below estimates1. Utility earnings in Texas and California were down 14% due to inflationary pressure on service and material costs, higher operating expenses and debt1. Debt increased by 5.1% and interest expense also increased. Nevertheless, Sempra increased dividends by 4.2% to $2.48 per share.

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Oncor, Sempra's Texas subsidiary, is a growth driver. It invested $4.7 billion in electric transmission and distribution infrastructure in 2024. New service requests were up 27%, mainly from commercial and industrial customers. In California, peak electricity demand was a record 5,032 megawatts in 2024.

Sempra increased its 5 year capital plan to a record $56 billion with over half allocated to Texas. This is due to Texas' substantial energy demand growth. ERCOT projects peak demand to grow 76% by 2030.

Future Outlook

Sempra lowered its 2025 earnings guidance to $4.30-$4.70 from $4.80-$5.20. But expects EPS growth to accelerate 7-9% annually to $4.80-$5.30 by 2026.

The 5 year capital plan of $56 billion reflects the company's priorities with over half allocated to Texas. Texas is expected to contribute 50% of the company's earnings by 2030.

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Investment Perspective

Despite the disappointing quarter, analysts maintain a positive outlook on Sempra. 10 out of 19 analysts recommend buying Sempra stock, 9 hold. The consensus price target is $82.29, 17.5% above current price.

Over the last 3 months, insiders have executed 10 trades: 6 buys and 4 sells. Total sales were over $5 million, with over $4 million from CEO Jeffrey W. Martin and total buys were $1.25 million.

Sempra has a balanced business and is investing in LNG and renewable energy, making it a key player in the energy transition. But high capital expenditures and increasing debt will limit profitability in the near term. Other risks include delays in getting LNG export permits and long payback periods for capital-intensive clean energy projects.

In conclusion, Sempra represents a long-term investment opportunity, especially for infrastructure and dividend-focused investors.

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